What is the bond/Treasury market telling us?
10 year yields highest since June
30 year yields highest since June
5s 30 yield curve Steepest since Early June and if June high’s Broken 4-year highs
Reflation trade, Democratic Sweep in upcoming election and /or pricing in a Stimulus deal of some sort or combination of all three is driving Long rates higher .With Short term rates pegged to zero for a few years the Curve could continue to steepen as the Above possible outcomes get priced in.
- Netflix Disappointing Earnings but most importantly new subscribers missed 2.2 mln vs f/c 3.4 yikes company being downgraded stock price -6% or so.
- Other Earnings news Winnebago good Stock =15 AutoNation good Stock +8% Snap the best stock +22%
- Yesterday Stimulus deal Deadline came and went without a deal… Pelosi running out the clock Per Politico
- “The Justice Department’s suit against Google marks the first time in more than 20 years that the government is looking at splitting up a company for quashing competition. And if the judge decides that Google is an illegal monopoly, the case could be the first time in more than 100 years that a court orders a company breakup. -Politico
- Bitcoin Above 12k for first time in a month
Dollar below the 93 and 92.70 level in spot Technicals turning bearish but surprisingly Stocks sideways to lower. Spoos and Nasdaq little changed European stocks heavy all main bourses down >1% 18-20 Stoxx sectors down on the day led by construction as Individual Stock earning in that sector disappoint. Weaker dollar may not be helping stocks but metals have bid Copper continues to gain trading at 2 + year high +1.25% precious metals higher, Nat Gas above $3 for first time in a little over a year. MXCn the MSCi China Stock Index approaching multi year highs yuan 2+ year highs reflation trade here.