Yesterdays debate Civil 10 days till election…The Weekly update of Fed balance sheet showed an increase of.36% resulting in a new all time high of $7.177 Trillion .last 3 weeks the balance sheet has increased by ~1.5% not much conversation surrounding this move so a stealthy move to add more liquidity . Fed balance sheet =37% of U.S. GDP ECB 66% and BOJ’s 137%. Not much in the way of Fresh news on Stimulus We may see some tweets or headlines but market impact likely to be nonexistent unless we seed declaration of Deal done…Gilead science share higher preopen as its antiviral Therapy becomes the first drug formally cleared to treat Covid-BBG
Stocks in Europe looking to close out week on a positive note all Bourses +>1.25% Some earnings from Barclays, Daimler raised Forward guidance and Renault top estimates lifting shares. Spoos little changed Nasdaq +.25% all markets waiting for the election. Nat Gas a a bit heavy today as LNG exports come off the boil a bit, still above 30-day Average but below Wednesday weekly highs for second day in a row. Dollar a bit lower but Weekly lows still have not breached. U.S 5s 30 continues to steepen if not broken why fix it right working a 6th consecutive higher or steeper close. Take notice fed balance sheet all-time highs as 10- and 30-year yields creep higher. From IFR news However, the prospect of a Blue Wave at the November election has disrupted this script…so far this disruption has been modest but could turn into a headache on a confirmed Biden victory. Already as Biden widened his lead over Trump, since the start of the month, we have seen 1) a 17bps rise in 10y yields; and 2) Russell2000 outperform the S&P500 by around 430bps. A Blue Wave is far from being priced largely because most investors tend to go into such election events with a neutral stance and stick to longer-term themes as opposed to a short-term gamble.
Quiet Economic calendar today markets likely to drift, Positive EU-Brexit trade comments also provided a bit of a lift to European Stocks. China may announce new import quotas for corn thus increasing demand for U.S. grain Corn +$1 or 400 ticks since August 15th! Even though Chin; s Hog Imports are very impressive +122% for September vs year ago levels market wants to see more demand Hogs touched limit down yesterday and Chart pattern no friend to bulls.Bitcoing trading around 13K.