Morning 11-2

A few things:

  • Highly Unlikely we know a winner before midnight tomorrow
  • UK joins Germany and France in partial or Full lockdowns
  • Besides Election, payroll report On Friday and ISM data Today and Wednesday
China Out with Caixin PMI data “Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 53.6 in October 2020, better than market consensus and September’s figure of 53.0. This was the sixth straight month of growth in factory activity and the strongest since January 2011, as the economy recovered further from the COVID-19 shocks. Output growth was among the sharpest over the past decade, and new orders rose the most since November 2010    …Trading Economics
  • US Election: By the Numbers
  • • 94+ million: Votes already cast in the US election, per the US Elections Project. More votes have already been cast in the state of Texas than were cast in total in 2016.
  • • 50%: In three of the last six elections (2000, 2004, 2016), the AP did not call a winner by midnight on Election Day. Pace yourself!
  • • 63%: Probability of a Biden win via betting markets (PredictIt) • 89%: Probability of Biden win, per FiveThirtyEight.
  • • 71%: Probability of a Clinton win on November 8, 2016, per FiveThirtyEight.
  •  • 3.3%: Implied price move for the S&P 500 on Wednesday, November 4, per Morgan Stanley QDS-Morgan Stanley
  • Hispanic is the Largest Minority

Stocks Bid this morning   Spoos +1.1%, Nasdaq only +.73% and Russell +1.26% Stoxx & Dax +1.5% , Mib +1.75%. Hmmm with new lockdowns being imposed and Economic projections be lowered a bit of A head scratcher is to why Europe higher. All 20 stoxx 600 sectors higher led by energy and Construction. Oil being offered again CL -2.3% brent -1.75% off the worse levels of the day. Just hitting the wire Russia floating the Idea of  A Delay to an  increase in production, CL and brent touched Unchanged. Just a matter of a time before OPEC trys to jawbone Oil higher. Copper +1.3% as China and Australia squabble a bit and the former may limit some of Copper imports. Dollar sideways as is Euro, Bonds unchanged to lower 5  yr yields down a touch. Nat Gas   -2.8% even with LNG exports strong. ISM today at 9:00 other then that waiting game continue

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