Morning 11-3

Election day is here Campaign is over we now with certainty   and Stocks feel relieved thus trading higher .Plenty of Uncertainty and issue yet to be resolved, but we won’t have another presidential election day for another 4 years  Spoos  +1.08% Dow +1.3% Nasdaq underperforming again  +.5%,Russell +1.6%  Rotation from Nasdaq to cyclical stocks continues. Stoxx 50 and Dax both +1.95% Mib +2.3%  Risk On

   Money on sidelines waiting for Election to pass ?? from Mizuho   “Hedge funds’ exposure to the equity market seems to be stuck at a historical low, suggesting that their stock holdings are smaller than usual ahead of Tuesday’s election. The 21-day moving beta of the Hedge Fund Research HFRX Equity Hedge Index to the S&P 500 is at 0.17, compared with an average of 0.33 over the past five years.”

 Based on betting Odd Biden is expected to win Another trump surprise may cause a bit of volatility, keep an eye on Senate race as a blue wave through the Senate will increase odds of a big stimulus deal.


  • The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate to an all-time low of 0.1% from 0.25% during its November meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said they would buy A$100 billion of government bonds with maturities of around five to 10 years over the next six months, with the first auction slated for Thursday. The RBA also cut its target for three-year bond yields to 0.1%, from 0.25%, to align with the cash rate, which, it pledged will remain unchanged until inflation is sustainably within its 2-3% target band. Trading economics   Initially Aussie Dollar traded a touch heavy but now +1 vs USD
  • Implied O/N  volatility   on currencies  moving higher not much of a surprise but  Both EUR JPY vols lower then they were in 2016 (IFR) On the other hand Yuan Volatility skyrocketing  I will be watching the yuan For Clues as the  results come in.
  • Net short in DXY per Morgan decreased vs last week  
  • Almost 100 million ballots have been cast before today
  • Odd fact the last poll to close will occur at 1AM EST in Adak Alaska Good News for Bonds  via WSJ “The Treasury estimated the government would borrow $617 billion from October through December, down from its $1.216 trillion estimate in early August”
  • Russian oil company sources tell @energyintel that the companies may be willing to go along with an extension of Opec-plus production cuts at their current levels into next year, if current unsupportive market conditions persist

Dollar index -.5%, Bond yields + 2 bps, Bund yield little changed, Commodities higher. Waiting game is on

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