Morning 11-4

 Where we stand as of 5:35 CST

  • Electoral votes Biden 238 Trump 213 with 6 states left to call a winner
  • Bet Fair has Biden odds to win at highest levels since earlier this A.M.
  • No Blue wave not even a ripple

From NYT:

Nevada’s election division announced that no more results will be given until 11 a.m. Eastern on Thursday. Remaining votes include mail ballots received on Election Day. See Nevada results ›

4:55 AM ET

After the city of Milwaukee reported its 169,000 absentee and early votes, Joe Biden pulled to a narrow lead in Wisconsin. Green Bay’s early votes remain outstanding. See Wisconsin results

3:36 AM ET

There is still a large share of uncounted votes in Pennsylvania’s most populous counties, including Philadelphia and Allegheny (Pittsburgh), and the largest suburban county, Montgomery. See Pennsylvania results ›  Timing of results: The remaining mail ballots are expected to favor Democrats. Officials have said they expect most votes will be counted by Friday, Nov. 6.

3:08 AM ET

The North Carolina race was the most expensive advertising battle in Senate history, according to Advertising Analytics. The campaigns spent nearly $260 million on ads.   Am I wrong to think that the money could have been used for something a bit better?

 House races Dems -4 Republicans + 4   Senate no major change Dems +1 Republicans -1 majority to stay in hands of republicans.

If Biden wins his agenda hindered with no change in Senate.  Okay for Spoos and Russell Good for Nasdaq as the reflation trade or the move out of growth into cyclicals impeded, Dollar might find some buyers here as chance of Big stimulus also unlikely. Today’s move lower in Yields for 30s and 10s largest in 7 months if markets settled right here right now, Not good for Bond Vol.  5s 30 yield curve flatter by 4.7% FOMC meeting today likely to be non-event especially if election winner still in question.

 Markets Show Solar companies trading lower, I use the ETF TAN down  ~4% and oil  trading higher +2.3% Nasdaq +2%,Dow and Russel a touch lower ,Spoos +.5% European stocks   steady to higher, Dollar is flat on session  but a hefty overnight range indicates quite a volatile session  Most currencies overnight experienced an active session ,yuan touching a new high vs dollar as I type as the expected  Surge in overnight Volatility came true.. Dec VIx -6% nov – 4.85%. Bunds plenty of action overnight as well 130 tick range but they too sit unchanged as I type.

Virus News:

 The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 is reaching record highs in several U.S. states, as Americans voted under the shadow of a resurging pandemic.

While daily infections are rising in all but three states, the surge is most pronounced in the Midwest and Southwest. Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Colorado and New Mexico reported record hospitalizations this week, reports Alexandra Olson.

Europe’s Resurgence: Infections have hit new daily highs this week in Russia, and Germany and the U.K. have announced plans to expand virus testing as European countries battle rapidly increasing infections and hospitalizations. Nations reintroduced restrictions to get ahead of a virus that has caused more than 270,000 deaths in Europe.

New measures took effect in Austria, Greece and Sweden, and the Dutch government announced the closing of theaters, swimming pools and other venues for two weeks. Russia reported the country’s fifth straight day of more than 18,000 new confirmed cases. Alarming reports have surfaced of overwhelmed hospitals, drug shortages and inundated medical workers. Elena Becatoros reports.   (AP news wires)


  • China Caixin Services PMI 56.8 vs 54.8 prior
  • BOJ Gov. Kuroda: BOJ will maintain current policy easing; will ease w/out hesitation; economy is picking up , remains in severe state due to virus impact, exports increasing & expected to carry on rising mainly for autos ; risks are tilted to downside for economy, inflation   ITC markets
  • API reported a big Draw in Crude -8m hurricane related?
  • Bank of England meets tomorrow and are expected to increase  QE by 100 m pounds

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