Close your eyes and think of market narrative a month two month ago Weaker dollar, Nasdaq racing higher as it appeared the only sector for growth, precious metals bid. Now the election results were possibly going to change this narrative Blue wave, Red wave, tax hike, more regulation. Now it looks like the markets believe in a Status Quo, back to that narrative. Biden will likely have to nominate moderates to majority of cabinet positions(If he wins) yes some progressives will be there but no where near as many as the left would like, less regulatory burden, A senate that will not adhere to a Progressive agenda one mor prone to Gridlock ,Stimulus will get done but at a much lower amount and this leaves thew Fed once again expected to carry the load. The 5s 30 yield curve steepening into the election on Blue wave, Big stimulus, More debt issuance and a Reflation environment. None of this is happening gridlock to occur and hence in the markets Eye this means back to the Status Outwit the Fed the only game in town The possibility of More Bond Buying is being priced into markets further accelerating the Unwind of Steepner trades and pushing yields lower at an alarming pace. Fed unlikely to announce any new bond buying measure today but treasuries pricing in that possibility soon. Also, a heft number of net shorts in longer dated treasuries helping to accelerate the move lower
We will likely see and update to Nevada, Arizona and Georgia later today. President trump either wants the counting of votes to stop in the states that he is ahead and wants to disqualify the Votes for Biden in the states that he is behind. Depending on what network you watch Biden either has 264 or 253 electoral votes. A big surprise would be a Trump victory, he still has a path to the presidency
Nasdaq +9% over last 3 days, Spoos 8% higher from Mondays lows to today’s highs ,30 year yields lower by some ~30bps from yesterday’s highs. Bitcoin +6% today, yesterday +2.5% Doubled in value in 2020 think of it as A precious metal moving higher on big dollar drop. DXY -.9% today -170 Big ticks from Mondays Settle. This is more of a QE trade then a new stimulus trade. Gold +1.8%, Silver +4.65%, Palladium +4.3 and copper Little changed Blah. Nat Gas steady LNG exports strong Weather weak Crude Oil Unchanged. VIx touched 41 last week not almost breaking 26 in the spot, Bond vol might as well just tag zero and get the pain out of the way in a hurry
Fed today unlikely to stir the pot
- Bank Of England added an additional 150 GBP to stimulus buying a bit of an upward surprise in conjunction the Government extended its Job support program by a few months. Recall Australia earlier this week also added a bit newer stimulus
- States not called yet Nevada, Penn.,Georgia and N.C.
- Qualcomm earnings better than expected stock +11%
- Analysts Saying that a Biden win Could unleash Iranian Oil exports by late2021