Morning 11-6

 Payroll ‘s today expected to show the smallest increase in 6 months signs of a Decelerating economy.  Temporary Census workers are coming off the Govt Payroll, but this may be off set by the late return of teachers to   Schools. Covid cases continue to surge   Forced lockdowns or not people’s behavior will change and leaving the house for Dining, bars anything where discretionary spending normally occurs will be slowed.

 Markets giving back some of her gains over the last 3 days, as payroll risk even though small, enough of a reason to pull some chips of the table. Dollar continues to trade lower euro roughly 6-week highs. Dovish Powell press conference yesterday   I paraphrase we are not of ammunition. “We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible,” Yahoo.  speaking of Doves one of the least Dovish Members on ECB Weidman   he said “All Instruments are on the table”  Doves everywhere.

  Final election results unlikely this weekend, Biden ahead in Georgia, catching up in Pennsylvania Nevada and Arizona still counting This from the twitters “@Jake Sherman

Playbook: BIDEN sources told us they became aware that there is a large batch of votes in Philadelphia that will put the former VP over the top in the state. The campaign didn’t have anything to say about that. BIDEN WORLD has started to mobilize in D.C. They have called around to business groups in town suggesting a call on the election is imminent and requested that statements include a reference to “legitimate democratic processes.”

 Also, from yahoo one good reason why stocks re higher? “ In scenarios where a Democrat is in the White House but Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress, average returns for U.S. equities have been fantastic, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 33.9% during these periods since 1989.”

 Bitcoin the clear winner since the election, =~18% from Wednesdays lows with Nasdaq a close second.

News:

  • Industrial production in Germany jumped 1.6% mom in September, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in August but below market forecasts of a 2.7% increase and still 8.4% below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose 3.92 percent in October 2020 from 3.14 in the previous month and compared with market expectations of 3.90 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since February Trading economics
  • US: +121k new cases, 2nd day over 100k daily cases – ITC markets
  • -Germany: +21506 new cases, record daily high; death toll +166
  • -Japan: report >1k new cases, highest since Aug
  • -Source: Hokkaido will raise virus alert level on Sat
  • Per Bloomberg gold and Copper headed for bet week since July

Markets:

  Oil Lower Nat ages lower grains small bid treasuries lower, Gold steady Silver +2.45 palladium +2.5%

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