Morning 11-12

10:45   Lagarde, BOE chief and Powell Speak

 Checking on today’s barometers

  • Nasdaq A bit higher
  • Spoos -.5%,
  • Russell -.85%,
  • European bank index -2.5%
  • 10 year yields -4 Bps.

 Virus:

Hospitalizations Jump 10%over last 5 days -BBG

 The worry is that hospitals are being pushed to the limit, death are not as high as they were at beginning dur to treatments and and better understanding of virus. Lockdowns may not happen but people spending habits will change and impact economy negatively. From pro farmer “Biden coronavirus advisor talks lockdown… A four- to six-week lockdown could bring Covid-19 under control and get the U.S. economy back on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed, said Michael Osterholm, who is advising President-elect Joe Biden on the coronavirus”

 Not seeing that worry here  per Mizuho “76.5 of Russell 3000 stocks trade above 200 da MA  highest since 2013,86% of SPX stocks>200 D   second highest last 5 years lastly the percentage of Bulls in the AAII(investor sentiment) survey  is highest since  Jan 2018  and largest weekly increase in 10 years”

 China:

 UK Summons China envoy after declaring HK treaty breach, in Turn UK considering sanctions. China flexing her muscles in all sorts of ways last few weeks, Is it a show a force for next US administration.

Markets:

 Weak US cpi more closely resembling Dis-inflation then inflation Long end bid oil sideways Nat gas a bit lower forecast continues to show mild weather through Thanksgiving, Currencies sideways choppy. Gold  and silver small bid. 30-year bond auction y today another record amount to be sold.

 News:

  • Bitcoin>$16000
  • India inflation highest since 2014(trading economics)
  • EZ industrial output missed expectations
  • Old News UK economy in Q3 rose by record amount
  • -Moderna: Vaccine trial reaches key goal to test the vaccine’s merit; the firm expects 1st interim analysis will inc substantially more than 53 cases , the targeted trigger point for analysis  ITC markets
  • OPEC+: talks focus on delay to oil-output hike of 3-6 months

While the number of infections continues to soar across Europe, there are some signs of a slowing down. New coronavirus cases started to stabilize or begun to ease in the UK, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, and the Czech Republic in the last week after new restrictions were put in place. Trading economics

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