Morning 11-25

 Narrative Today Sideways lacking macro driver, Volume in treasury complex light a Holiday Themed market. Dollar Index traded below this week’s lows but no momentum to downside.

Oil  bull Run continues..  from trading Economics “Crude oil futures rose more than 1% to trade around $45.5 a barrel on Wednesday, remaining close to an over eight-month high touched early in the session as prospects that a coronavirus vaccine could be used soon raised hopes of a quicker fuel demand recovery. Also, a possible delay in OPEC+’s planned production increase in January and the formal start of Joe Biden’s transition to power added to the upbeat mood.”   CL +26%  MTD

 Gold, Silver bouncing a bit Dead cat in nature I believe. Chatter that  investors are  using Bitcoin as the flight to safety instead of Gold passes the eye test. In Europe both Energy and bank Index Down   ~1% or so Russel lower as well and Nasdaq higher so a pause in the rotation trade. Spoos Steady 30 handle range not so bad. NKY closed +.5% CSI 300 -1.2%. Dow did close >30k yesterday All-time highs. Just released Jobless claims increased for second Consecutive Week haven’t seen that since Mid-July.


Mortgage applications in the United States surged 3.9 percent in the week ended November 20th, after falling in each of the previous two weeks, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. Homebuyer mortgage applications rose 3.5 percent and those to refinance a home loan surged 4.5 percent. Trading economics

US home prices at an all-time high (up 7% over last year); US mortgage rates at all-time lows (2.72%); Homebuilder sentiment at record high (90); Home sales at highest level since ’06, building permits at highest since ’07. -Mizuho


  • FedEx and UPS face a shortage of Delivery vans amid surge in E-Commerce -BBG   an increase in prices coming?
  • China pork meat production seen rising 12 % in 2021 -Rabo bank
  • Cocoa rally, squeeze running out of Steam prices down some 3.5% today after an 8-day run
  • DB warning of too much bullishness for Stock Investors
  • China hinting of a new probe into Electric Vehicles-@delta one
  • House and Senate negotiators have until Dec. 11 to reach agreement on the dozen annual spending bills, hold floor votes in the House and Senate, and get Trump to sign the package before a temporary funding bill expires
  • Bitcoin =$19,400
  • Deere and Co projected higher earnings for year ahead-Bbg why not with Soy and and corn show no signs of topping out just yet
  • Germany to tighten lockdown restrictions UK and France to Loosen

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