Morning 12-1

New Month new money Buy em up! Spoos +1 %, Nasdaq +.9%, Rus +1.45%, Stoxx 50 +.6%, Treasuries lower as a “risk on theme “prevails. Gold Higher possible liquidation into month End then buyers emerge today, Dollar sideways so no catalyst there, gold +1.7% silver same story +3.88% Platinum +2.75%. Copper + 1.7%, Bitcoin taking out to woodshed this morning only down 5% ish stuffed again at the 20K level inverse relationship with gold I see.

 Stricter lockdown measures possible in California, Markets don’t care   focus is middle of next year , not end of this year. Some Cities including Chicago already have vaccine in hand so a few weeks of stricter measures will not damp the optimism that the end of the virus economy is near. Powell and Mnuchin appear before a senate panela 9:00 today, Mnuchin will be asked why he Is pulling back some Fed programs at end of year when Powell wants them to stay in place.

Economic news:

  • China PMI data continues to impress the Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 vs 53.5 f/c strongest growth since Nov 2010 (trading economics)
  • South Korean Exports a proxy for Asian trade showed sharpest growth in 44 years (BBG)
  • EZ CPI was -.3% y/y same as prior 2 months and worse than the expected decline of .2% this marks the 4th straight month of Deflation (trading econ) will this cause ECB  to up Stimulus? Or will the Vaccine hopes cause them to sit on hand and let it play out
  • OPEC + canceled its scheduled meeting for today because a consensus could not be reached on delaying production cuts, another meeting is scheduled for Thursday Oil a bit weaker
  • Bitcoin Smack down traded almost 2k below yesterday highs in the futures
  • US 5y5y Inflation swap what inflation expectations are for the 2025-2030 period touched an 18-month high
  • OECD lowered 2021 global GDP to 4.2 vs 5 % in September

 Besides Mnuchin and Powell today something else to monitor  a bipartisan group of Senators will release a version of a stimulus bill that hopefully  will break log jam,ISM manufacturing at 9:00 is always a highlight and lastly  Fe d Governor Brainard speaks  at 11:00 the favorite to be the next Fed chair

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