Morning 12-4

A few things…

  •  Pfizer announced yesterday that they will only ship 5o million Doses of vaccine compared to initial estimates of 100 million this was out late yesterday afternoon
  • Moderna “Company re-affirmed its expectation of having about 20 million doses available in the U.S. by the end of 2020- BBG
  • German Factory orders back to pre-pandemic levels (Trading economics)
  • Fed balance sheet little changed in the week ending Wednesday
  • Money is now so easy, why not borrow what you can and put it into stocks? That’s what our customers are doing, and they’re making helluva lot of money,” ThomasPeterffy, the billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers (FT)
  •  Euro 2.5 year high as Brexit optimism holds Also ECB may extend it Bond buying program for a year at next week’s ECB meeting, this may disappoint traders
  • US junk bonds yield touched another record low yesterday ,4.45% (BBG) as credit goes stock market follows.  No fear of Defaults just keep reaching for yield

NFP.

 Markets looking forward, payroll data looks backwards Vaccine and Stimulus news drives sentiment and market activity, not Econ data. A weaker number might be quickly ignored as more of a case for stimulus and a good number with firm wage data likely to weigh on treasuries and maintain bid in Stocks. I will be looking more so at wage data then jobs created, Inflation can still impact markets so my focus will be there. As usual these days a very large range of expectations for today’s number -100k to +750K A bit of Commentary From trading economics

  “Nonfarm payrolls in the US likely increased by 469 thousand in November of 2020, below 638 thousand in October and the least in six months. Government payrolls expected to fall for a second month while retailers are set to hire more workers due to the holiday season. Still, the projected gain would leave the employment 9.621 million below its February peak. The outlook for the labor market remains challenging as coronavirus infections continue to rise and more states introduced restrictions while the new stimulus bill which would provide support to millions of Americans hasn’t yet been approved”

Markets are steady to sideways energy sector your leader out of Europe +2.6% travel and leisure +1.6%, treasury Yields a bit higher gold and silver sideways all focus on dollar post payroll data. Nat Gas a small bounce after yesterday drop was worst in months  oil bid due to   OPEC easing into production cuts

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.