12-16

 Optimism continues to grow regarding a Stimulus package “FOX NEWS REPORTER PERGRAM: IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SIDES COULD GET COVID DEAL TODAY. BUT IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO PROCESS. MEANING A FEW DAYS. AND FOX IS TOLD THAT WHILE THE OMNIBUS SPENDING PACKAGE IS IN “GOOD” SHAPE, POLICY ISSUES STILL REMAIN.

Pay attention to 8:45 markit Econ PMI data last month big mover

 Dollar lower approaching the 90 handle, current lows 90.128, Stimulus trade in play Gold a bit higher Bonds and Ultras weaker, Stocks higher led by Russell +.4% spoos and nas +.2%   Gold lacking  a bid  this morning take note  but  Bitcoin is  trading 19980 in the futures + 1.75% Silver following the playbook +2.1%

 Just hitting Wire “BREAKING … Hill negotiators are on the brink of a $900bn coronavirus rescue package that would include a new round of direct payments, but would leave out state and local aid, and a liability shield. A deal could come as early as early this morning.

 Not only Stimulus deal but Solid Econ data out of EZ as PMI Data beat handily driving the bid in stocks (ITC markets for numbers)

  • -FRA Dec Prelim Mfg. PMI: 51.1 vs 50.1 cons
  • -FRA Dec Prelim Servs PMI: 49.2 vs 40.0 cons
  • -GER Dec Prelim Mfg PMI: 58.6 vs 56.4 cons
  • -GER Dec Prelim Servs PMI: 47.7 vs 44.0 cons
  • -EZ Dec Prelim Mfg PMI: 55.5 vs 53.0 cons
  • -EZ Dec Prelim Servs PMI: 47.3 vs 41.9 cons
  •  

Stoxx 50 +.5%, Dax +1.4% (autos strong) Mib +.65% Euro poked her ahead above 1.22 for the first time in 2 years.

Retail sales at 7;30 might be ignored due to stimulus announcement. Update Retails sales missed badly and last months revised lower… Fed decision at 1 even though they may stand pat on all stimulus measures there are plenty of moving parts today so likely some market movement at 1:00   Dot plots, Updated econ Projections new forward guidance

From Pro farmer

  “FOMC meeting concludes today… Federal Reserve releases a policy statement and economic projections at 1 p.m. CT, and Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference at 1:30 p.m. CT. Traders will watch for new guidance on asset-purchase plans, potential changes to the composition of the Treasury purchases, projections on the pace of the recovery and interest-rate increases, and how officials are gauging uncertainty in their forecasts. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said there is a possibility of a dovish surprise today by the Fed that could spur further dollar weakness. Economists say the Fed may deliver fresh guidance on its asset purchases, tying how long the buying will continue to substantial progress in

meeting its goals of full employment and 2% inflation. Updated economic forecasts will also be issued by Fed members with changes expected since the November unemployment rate of 6.7% is already under the 7% to 8% the Fed forecast in September. Its GDP outlook for 2021 could also rise. Powell is expected to push for added fiscal stimulus by lawmakers.”

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