Morning 1-14

 A couple things.

  The light at the end Tunnel is a a great term for optimism or hope but what if the tunnel keeps getting longer?

Biden will unveil is Stimulus plan tonight at 7:00, some high lights via WSJ, CNN reported the bill at 8 PM last night.

“Mr. Biden and Democratic legislative leaders have repeatedly endorsed $2,000 direct payments to most Americans, calling the $600 checks in the December bill insufficient. The Biden plan would likely add $1,400 to the earlier payments to reach $2,000 total.

Mr. Biden said Friday there would be “billions of dollars” to speed up vaccine distribution, “tens of millions of dollars to help reopen our schools,” and “tens of billions of dollars” to allow state and local governments to keep paying teachers, police officers and health workers. He cited extending unemployment insurance and rent relief, and suggested he wants to modify the small-business assistance program to ensure more aid for minority-owned businesses. He also reiterated his support for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour from the current $7.25, though it is unclear if that will be part of the relief package.    Below 30-year yield on the Biden stimulus announcement, also Bitcoin Bid +2k on day, Gold and Silver down on Day no stimulus moves here, Dollar Small bid today and rallying a touch. Some rumblings now that that rates and not the dollar is the lynchpin for the reflation trade. Its not he actual level of the 10-year rates but the speed at which

China Trade surplus, touched a record high as Demand for anything and all China goods continues a sampling China made 40 masks for every person around the world (BBG) trade balance expected $72B actual $78.1b 

 Grain markets sideways today Rumor that Russia will announce More export restrictions doing the rounds so watch Wheat. Stocks narrow range in Spoos 13 handles Yuck. European bourses with a small bid Autos, Travel and leisure and basic resources leading Europe higher. Italian Worries are pushing bund Italian spread to 2-month highs.

News:

  • Consider the fact that the CPI component for major household appliances, despite a pandemic, is rising at a 16.6% YoY rate (its index impact masked by an equally large plunge in airline fares), while the Q4 2020 U.S. Chamber of Commerce Commercial Construction survey showed that 71% of contractors are facing at least one material shortage, 83% experiencing product delays, and another 58% putting in higher bids on projects.”
  • AAII US Investor Sentiment Bullish Readings hits….100%.
    Attached. mizuho
  • BN) Manhattan Bargain-Hunters Drive a 94% Jump in Apartment Leases
  • The rise in 10-year Treasury yields to open the year has come
    amid a surge in term premium, or the extra compensation
    investors require to own the maturity rather than rolling over
    a shorter-dated obligation. The premium, which has historically
    been positive, is climbing back toward zero, a level not seen
    since 2018, according to Federal Reserve data

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