Vol Lower again

Below is a matrix with all sorts of Different Volatility metrics, you don’t have to look to close to see that almost all of them have been trading lower this week on the 1 ,2 and 5 day % change.Recall from this morning that Bloomberg said Currency Vol at all time lows.markets need a scare ASAP

Morning 1-17

A big Announcement overnight weighing on the longer end of U.S. Yield Curve 30 year yields +2 Bps while 2s, 3s and 5 years see yields lower by 1 bps. Steepening the curve overnight as 2s 30s steeper by 4 bps just off session high levels

(AP) — The U.S. Treasury, faced with financing budget deficits topping $1 trillion annually, is introducing a new 20-year bond. The new 20-year bond was chosen after officials considered
proposals for a 50-year or 100-year bond, Treasury said in a statement Thursday. It said the new 20-year bond would be made available to investors in the first half of 2020. More details are expected at the Treasury’s quarterly refunding news conference on Feb. 5.

China GDP Commentary via trading Economics “The Chinese economy advanced 6.0 percent year-on-year in the December quarter of 2019, the same as in the previous quarter and matching market expectations. This remained the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 1992, amid trade pressure from the US and sluggish demand from home and abroad. Considering full 2019, the economy grew by 6.1 percent, the slowest pace in 29 years but still within the governments target of 6 to 6.5 percent. Not all doom and Gloom out of China, retail sales and Industrial production a bit better then consensus

European Economic data Showed EZ construction output raising less than Expected and U.K. retail sales Stagnant for the 5th consecutive month, this along with China GDP data creating a sense that Global recovery still struggling to take hold. Today U.S. data is second tier Housing starts, Industrial production and U of Michigan Confidence. The highlight of these numbers may be the Inflation components of the Michigan data

Phase 1 Deal signed with China and now it appears the EU and USA may be next fight.EU trade Chief Hogan had some harsh Comments regarding US trade policies yesterday so heads up as the tariffs threats may now turn towards the EU
Per Bloomberg Volatility in Currencies drops to lowest level ever
Go Figure spoos up, European bourse higher across the board Dax +.5 % Cac in France +.9%. Cartier watch and jewelry company +5% as Holiday sales met Forecasts Hmm High End doing well but yet 5 below struggled. Gold higher Dollar higher, palladium is unreal higher again today by 2.75% Platinum +1.9% market’s sure have a QE feel to them don’t they? March Nat Gas Dipped below $2

Today's Economic Data

Today’s Retails sales data was surprisingly better then consensus. With all of the Monthly sales reports from kohl,target five below missing expectations pre report sentiment a bit bearish. Below is the breakdown of Monthly retail sales with Right column November and left December numbers.The red circles indicate the big declines from Nov, Department stores an Ugly 2 months thus the poor numbers from Above mentions stores.

The other data point, a regional Manufacturing survey from Philadelphia Fed beat expectations handily, the Sub -components also very strong.The regional Survey’s give the first look at current months Economic data and are worth markets attention.Take notice of the Circled Components a Nice Start to the year.

Bonds trading lower on day and a small bid in dollar

Morning 1-16

Morgan Stanley earnings better than Expected as trading revenue beat Expectations, something all of the big banks have accomplished. Bond trading revenue surged pushing annual profit to an all-time high (BBG) stock +2% pre- market

From WSJ “The S&P 500 is on one of its longest streaks without a 1% daily move in the past five decades, highlighting how the latest leg of the stock-market rally has been a gradual climb rather than a euphoric surge.
The broad equity gauge hasn’t moved 1% or more in either direction since mid-October, its sixth-longest streak since the end of 1969 and third-longest since the end of 1995, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Driving the extended period of calm trading: An initial U.S.-China trade deal and lower interest rates around the globe that have eased fears of a sharp economic slowdown.”
Positive News from Europe via Trading Economics “
• ECB officials agreed that there were some signs of stabilization in the Eurozone growth slowdown, and that downside risks to the outlook had become somewhat less pronounced, the accounts of the December meeting showed

• New passenger car registrations in the European Union jumped 21.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.22 million units in December 2019, the highest December total on record

China Trade comment: in 2017 China Bought $186B of goods and services from the U.S.(BBG) in Phase one they pledged to buy $200B hmmmm might be some difficulty in achieving this goal.

Spoos,Bonds,Copper,Gold all higher oil steady Dollar a touch weaker as Euro has small bid on Positive ECB comments. Retail sales is a big deal and markets awaiting the release.Spoos may never go down it seems


in the Eyes of nat Gas Winter is over as prices trade closer to $2 and Weren’t we Close to WW III due to spat with Iran? Can someone remind oil of this fact,Today’s EIA storage Numbers were a bullish for Crude oil but the magnitude of the bearishness of the gasoline and Distillates numbers overwelemd oil.Below Daily and YTD changes for Energy.