All 50 States open..

all 50 states in one way shape or form are reopening as Connecticut becomes the last state to do so …Florida reporting new cases increased 1.1% vs 7-day Average of 1.6%(Mizuho) IRS reporting employees can return to work in three states Kentucky,Utah and Texas beginning early June (Politico).Tests in the U.S.,over the last week have averaged 350K a day(Morning dispatch) traders optimism outweighs pessimism.

Commentary from Morgan Stanley

Macro: Lows in Growth Are in. ‘U’ Is Fine, ‘W’ Is Not
We think April saw the lows for growth in this cycle, and data will
now start to improve from that low base. In this early phase of the
cycle, we think rate of change matters more than level; a ‘W’ is the
problem, not a ‘U’. Our cycle model is in ‘repair’, and suggests better
risk asset performance once the data lows are in
. “Factor exposure – long value, neutral on momentum: Our trade portfolio has a value bias and
is short momentum.”

Bloomberg financial conditions appear to be showing a “V” shaped recovery as metric moves closer to positive territory

Morning 5-20

Retail Earnings:

  • Lowe’s shares soar after same-store sales surge 11.2%(CNBC)
  • Earnings per share: $1.77, adjusted vs. $1.32 expected
  • Revenue: $19.68 billionvs. $18.32 billion expected
  • Same-store sales: up 11.2% vs. 3.3% expected

Target

 digital sales, or online sales +141%  fueled first-quarter gains, but the big-box retailer’s earnings results Wednesday showed it paid a hefty price for that growth as labor costs rose and sales of higher-margin items like apparel dropped….Shares were up less than 1% in premarket trading.

News:

  • Growing chatter of negative Policy rates in U.K. what was once a murmur is moving to a shout as U.K sold Bonds with negative yields for the first time
  • In The U.S. Foreigners hold the smallest proportion of treasuries since 2002 as Central banks sell treasuries to raise dollars(BBG)
  • Silver prices are +14% last 4 days and +52% from March lows (WSJ)
  • U.S. China find an old topic to argue about… Taiwan!
  • Airline Company’s starting to see people book more flights calling it a possible inflection point (WSJ)
  • Facebook will allow some workers back Into office on July 6th and is unveiling a new “shops” product which could increase companies ad revenue  Stock +2%(BBG)
  • Both JPM and GS saying Central banks may have to ramp up QE to offset the Increase in Government supply of Debt(BBG)
  • (Bloomberg) — The Samsung S&P GSCI Crude Oil ER FuturesETF said it has appointed several new clearing brokers and will resume the creation of shares on May 21, according to a filing

Markets:

 Risk On  Spoos, Nasdaq Dow  all + >1%  European stocks Mixed, Cac unchanged, Dax +.25%  Italy’s MIB -.5%  Continued optimism about reopening country to blame for  strength…2965  level in Spoos again in play need a close above it to gives bulls a bit more confidence… No economic releases today so sentiment and headlines will drive flows…. Crude higher so far today Yesterday’s API oil data leaned bullish the above oil comments also provide a bid. dollar just a touch lower treasuries sideways awaiting the first 20 year bond auction in a few decades… Gold A touch higher plenty of experts calling a top in gold thus the large amount of shorts in product thus   plenty of fuel if rally can continue.

Virus News

Brazil recorded its largest single-day jump in coronavirus cases and deaths on Tuesday, reported Reuters, citing the latest data by the health ministry. The country reported an increase of 17,408 cases to bring its tally to 271,628, the report said. Brazil now has the third-highest number of cumulative cases globally behind the U.S. and Russia, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University…. Trump considering a travel Ban…..The coronavirus pandemic could cost the global economy $82 trillion over five years, a Cambridge study warns. The cost projections are based on 2019 gross domestic product volumes which stood at $69.2 trillion for the world’s 19 leading economies.

Headlines from this Afternoon

Not a good close for stocks based on the Negative commentary regarding Modern vaccines.President Trump throws a bit of gas on the sell off saying im disappointed with China

  • SPX – 1.59%
  • Nasdaq – 0.54%
  • Russell 2k -1.95% –
  • Dow -1.05%
  • MODERNA CORONAVIRUS VACCINE TRIAL NOT WORKING AS WELL AS EXPECTED
  • TRUMP SAYS HE IS DIRECTING U.S. AGENCIES TO REVIEW SUSPENDED REGULATIONS AND MAKE THEM PERMANENT WHERE POSSIBLE
  • U.S LABOR DEPT TO END ALL DATA LOCKUPS REGARDLESS OF COVID-19
  • ACTING U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY CHIEF WOLF SAYS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS \”LIKELY\” TO EXTEND NON-ESSENTIAL TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ON MEXICO, CANADA SET TO EXPIRE THIS WEEK
  • @seungminkim Some policy NEWS from inside the GOP lunch – Trump expressed opposition to the $600/week unemployment benefit boost once it expires in July, per three sources. House Ds want to extend through January 2021
  • A quiet June CL expiration

Oil rigs from Oilprice.com

Weekly Data check

The New York Fed Weekly Economic Index:

Still waiting to form a bottom I believe
Weekly Johnson Redbook retail store index covering 9000 US general Merchandise stores,no online sales used

Not all bad news Atlanta GDPNow model reporting;

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -41.9 percent May 19, up from -42.8 percent on May 15. After this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -69.4 percent to -66.0 percent.

Morning 5-19

Let us Start with Some earnings…

    Walmart shares rose nearly 4% after the retailer said its e-commerce sales grew significantly as customers bought groceries, cleaning items and other essentials online during the pandemic.    The big-box retailer’s e-commerce sales in the U.S. shot up by 74% and its same-store sales grew by 10% in the first quarter. (CNBC)… To keep up with demand, it hired 200,000 employees to help clean stores, stock shelves and fulfill online orders

   Shares of Home Depot fell about 2% during Tuesday’s premarket trading after the company missed earnings expectations in the first quarter thanks to higher coronavirus-related costs. For the quarter, the company earned $2.08 per share, which was below the $2.27 analysts had been expecting. Same-store sales jumped 6.4%, beating consensus estimates of a 4.4% rise. Revenue came in at $28.26 billion, which was also higher than the expected $27.54 billion. The company said that coronavirus-related expenses – such as increasing paid time off for hourly employees – totaled $640 million, or 60 cents per share(CNBC)

News and headlines:

 the Franco/German push for a €500bn recovery fund sponsoring grants for regions hit hardest by the Covid-19 crisis. That looks set to cast a long shadow over European markets for the days to come, although more details, and more analysis, is required. (ITC markets) …. US President Trump’s threat to withdraw funding for the World Health Organization unless it commits to “major substantive improvements in the next 30 days”, The text of the Federal Reserve chairman’s testimony which he will present before the Senate Banking Committee today was released, with little impact on broader markets. (IFR News) …. U.S. businesses are doubling down on China… From Popeyes to Walmart, Tesla to Exxon Mobil, companies are betting that the country’s long-term growth potential still outweighs the mounting case against further expansion — including geopolitical tensions and slowing growth. While the pandemic has spurred businesses to rethink supply chains to reduce dependency on China, companies that are producing in China for Chinese customers are bulking up their local presence, the Wall Street Journal reports. (Pro Farmer) …. Corona virus overwhelming the Brazilian health Care system (WSJ)… Treasury has spent small portion of aid… The Treasury Department has spent only $37.5 billion thus far of a $500 billion pool of funds Congress provided to help struggling businesses, including airlines, during the pandemic, according to a congressional watchdog panel’s report. (WSJ)

Markets:

 Spoos did trade above the all important 2965 level overnight but since failed to maintain gains. A close above this level is all important for the bulls. Currently Spoos down 10 handles, Nasdaq, Stoxx 50 unchanged giving back most overnight gains, Bonds and bunds bouncing a bit after  yesterdays Collapse  and Run up to almost 2 month high in  yields Dollar continues to sag  but still inside a multi week range, we need to see a break out one way another  Yen trading a bit lower as the BOJ called an Emergency meeting for Thursday to discuss some new lending measures. Mnuchin and Powell not expected to cause much of a stir in markets, Tomorrow Treasury Auctions the 20-year bond for the first time in a few decades??  curious to see market reaction and pricing.

Virus news:

BN) Covid Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Aren’t Infectious                                                          
                                                                
Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and     
Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested       
positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently
resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The 
so-called re-positive patients were not found to have spread any
lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them could
not be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding 
non-infectious or dead virus particles.

Yields

Less Fed QE,More Treasury Sales,Higher oil,Higher stocks all equate into lower Treasury prices.Yields coming up near 2 month highs is something to monitor,1.45% ish =2 month yield highs in bonds

10 year yields between .74 to .78% is a cluster of old daily highs yields currently .73%

Charts for Everyone

Boxed beef prices(choice) have peaked(I believe)

Weekly Hog Slaughter appears to have bottomed out as facilities come back on line, possibly bullish for hogs.
Natural Gas Demand spread ( demand minus production) highest in 2 months. EQT says it will curtail Appalachian Gas production until prices rise.
From Mizuho ” daily Tick data had a print of 2049 this mornings on open the highest ever” people in the mood to buy from the Get go.
Moderna has early success in Virus Vaccine trials, stock gaped higher this morning with great volume. This stock movement has a lot to do with today’s risk on Move, A name to watch